Eluned Morgan, the Welsh First Minister, warns Labour against cutting disability benefits, pledging to stand against unfair policies in a major speech

Eluned Morgan, the First Minister of Wales, is set to break ranks with Labour’s controversial stance on disability benefit cuts. In a high-profile speech on Tuesday, she is expected to criticise the UK Government’s plans to reduce the disability benefits bill, which she claims will unfairly impact communities in Wales. The cuts have sparked fierce debate within Labour, with some MPS arguing they could alienate voters, particularly in northern England and Wales.

Morgan, renowned for her no-nonsense leadership style, will highlight the success of Welsh Labour’s initiatives in areas like reducing NHS waiting lists, particularly after receiving additional funds from the Budget. However, she will make it clear that she will not accept policies that harm Wales and its citizens. “Where we disagree, we’ll say it. Where we see unfairness, we’ll stand up to it,” Morgan will declare. “We will not stay silent when Westminster makes decisions that hurt Welsh communities.”

In a nod to Wales’ distinctive political identity, Morgan is expected to use a metaphor from the beloved TV sitcom Gavin and Stacey, saying that policies suitable for Essex may not work in Barry. The speech comes at a crucial time for Labour in Wales, with the party facing increasing competition from both Reform UK and Plaid Cymru ahead of next year’s Senedd elections.

The political landscape in Wales is becoming more fragmented, as national parties such as Reform UK have made significant inroads in recent local elections. Their strong performance, especially in traditional Labour strongholds like Runcorn, signals a growing discontent with the current political direction. Morgan’s stance reflects concerns within Labour that Reform UK could siphon off votes by exploiting dissatisfaction with Labour’s economic policies.

Morgan’s intervention has already garnered support from figures such as former Labour leader Neil Kinnock, who emphasised the need for Labour to remain relevant to voters’ everyday lives. Kinnock’s comments underline the importance of a clear and authentic Labour identity that champions Welsh values like community, fairness, and determination. These values, he argues, must be at the heart of Labour’s political strategy in Wales.

Adding weight to the growing chorus of dissent, former Cabinet Minister Louise Haigh has joined the ranks of Labour MPS calling for the abandonment of welfare cuts and the winter fuel allowance reductions. Haigh described Labour’s current position as an “existential” threat to the party’s future, particularly with the rise of Reform UK as a viable alternative to the traditional political establishment.

Morgan’s outspoken stance is part of a broader trend of internal Labour party tensions, where the pressure to maintain unity is clashing with the need to respond to shifting public sentiment. As Labour faces a challenging electoral future, especially in Wales, the party’s approach to economic policies, including welfare reform, could determine its political viability.

The situation is also adding pressure on Labour leader Keir Starmer, who has been attempting to balance the demands of left-wing and centrist factions within the party. Morgan’s position highlights the delicate tightrope Labour must walk, not just in Wales, but across the UK as it prepares for the upcoming elections.

Morgan’s commitment to stand up for Welsh interests, even if it means challenging Labour’s policies, could signal a shift towards a more independent and assertive Welsh Labour identity. It remains to be seen how Labour’s leadership will respond to this growing divergence of opinion within the party.