With South Africa and New Zealand out, World Rugby faces mounting pressure to fix a broken model.

 Rugby’s most iconic nations are increasingly turning their backs on hosting the sport’s showpiece event, as a toxic blend of economic strain, poor planning, and flawed profit-sharing threatens the future of the Rugby World Cup.

The bidding process for the 2035 and 2039 tournaments has officially opened. Spain and Italy are circling, Japan is a favourite for a return, and whispers about the Middle East grow louder. But one notable absence has rattled the sport—South Africa has bowed out.

Despite lifting three of the last five World Cups, South Africa no longer sees hosting as viable. “We are a third-world country. Our economy is not strong,” said SA Rugby president Mark Alexander, who described the burden of government guarantees as unfair and irresponsible. His blunt admission marks the end of a decade-long pursuit, which saw South Africa overlooked for 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2023—despite being the board’s preferred bid in the latter case.

That rejection still stings. “It’s heartbreaking,” Springboks star Damian de Allende reflected. “We could have hosted and won it—it would’ve meant everything.”

South Africa isn’t alone. New Zealand, which last hosted in 2011, is unlikely to step forward again due to limited infrastructure, especially with the tournament set to expand to 24 teams. Even a joint bid with Australia appears off the table. Ireland, once a hopeful for 2023, remains bruised by their failure to rally neighbours behind them. A proposed UK and Ireland bid for 2031 collapsed over disputes about where to hold the final.

Meanwhile, World Rugby is rolling the dice on expansion. The 2027 tournament goes to Australia. In 2031, the United States—a rugby minnow but commercial powerhouse—will take the reins. Fixtures in Las Vegas, Washington, and Chicago suggest a strategic push for American hearts and wallets.

Yet the finances tell a troubling story. France’s 2023 tournament yielded €500m (£429m) in revenue for World Rugby, but left the French organisers with a stinging €13m (£11.1m) loss, according to a scathing audit report. Elsewhere, unions are bleeding cash.

Ireland posted a €15.8m deficit after the 2023 World Cup. “It’s a value transfer from unions to the tournament,” said Irish Rugby chief Kevin Potts. The loss of autumn international income during a World Cup year, he explained, hits hard. “We can’t keep doing this.”

Bill Sweeney, CEO of the Rugby Football Union, echoed that frustration. “The revenue shift is about £45m in that fourth year. We’re making a big loss and effectively subsidising the global growth effort,” he told the Business of Sport podcast. “We get very little of the profits we generate.”

And so a paradox emerges: the elite nations that drive the game’s prestige and finances are retreating from hosting duties, while World Rugby pushes expansion into new markets. But who shoulders the cost?

Japan could re-enter the frame for 2039 after its successful 2019 hosting, while the Middle East—especially Qatar—looms large. With the Nations Championship finals pencilled in for Doha in 2028, Gulf nations are courting the sport. But logistical hurdles remain steep: intense autumn heat, winter schedule conflicts, and the competitive inadequacy of potential host teams all stand in the way.

World Rugby’s chief executive Alan Gilpin struck a pragmatic tone. “Any region that wants to invest in the game, we’re going to take those conversations seriously,” he said.

But for now, the model appears broken. Unions that once fought for hosting rights are now walking away, weighed down by losses and sidelined in key decisions. As World Rugby chases growth in new markets, its foundations in the old powerhouses are crumbling—and there’s no clear fix in sight.